Preliminary May-14 figures suggest recovery in monthly urea offtake

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  • As per preliminary figures for May 2014, urea offtake has clocked in at ~400k tons, down 18%YoY but up 55%MoM. Against this backdrop, we anticipate urea offtake for 5M2014 to settle at 2,040k tons (down 5%YoY).
  • Meanwhile DAP sales have clocked in 38%YoY and 189%MoM higher at 110k tons in May 2014 taking YTD 2014 DAP sales to 350k tons (up 28%YoY).
  • Offtake of other fertilizers also showed improvement, where CAN sales were recorded at 82k tons (up 131%YoY and 136%MoM) and NP sales were recorded at 86k tons (up 710%YoY and 219%MoM).
  • Company-wise details of May 2014 urea offtake reveal an overall YoY mixed trend for local urea producers, where ENGRO and FFBL reported urea offtake of 133k tons (+8%YoY and +123%MoM) and 30k tons (+27%YoY and +4%MoM), respectively.
  • On a monthly basis urea offtake figures reveal an overall positive trend for local producers: FFC (+40%MoM) and FATIMA (+683%MoM).

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Urea offtake for May 2014 (-18%YoY and +55%MoM)

As per preliminary figures for May 2014, urea offtake has clocked in at ~400k tons, down 18%YoY but up 55%MoM. The YoY decline in urea offtake is likely on account of lower imported urea sales this year amid expectations of one time price reduction so as to get rid of old inventory. Note that NFML’s sales were recorded at a mere 4k tons in May with a closing inventory of 348k tons. Against this backdrop, we anticipate urea offtake for 5M2014 to settle at 2,040k tons (down 5%YoY). Resultantly, Pak urea inventory is likely to stand at ~550k tons as of end-May 2014, where NFML holds 63% of the inventory. Meanwhile DAP sales have clocked in 38%YoY and 189%MoM higher at 110k tons in May 2014 taking YTD 2014 DAP sales to 350k tons (up 28%YoY). Offtake of other fertilizers showed a positive trend as well, where CAN sales were recorded at 82k tons (up 131%YoY and 136%MoM) and NP sales at 86k tons (up 710%YoY and 219%MoM).

 

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Overall positive monthly urea offtake by local producers

Company-wise details for urea offtake in May 2014 revealed an overall YoY mixed trend for all local urea producers, where ENGRO and FFBL reported urea offtake of 133k tons (+8%YoY and +123%MoM) and 30k tons (+27%YoY and +4%MoM), respectively. However, MoM figures revealed an overall positive trend for local producers. Moreover, FFC and FATIMA witnessed sales of 220k tons (-9%YoY but +40%MoM) and 21k tons (-30%YoY and +683%MoM), respectively.

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